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Magic: The Gathering Financial Discussion

2012.12.23 17:55 Dingareth Magic: The Gathering Financial Discussion

Speculat(e/ing) 1. form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence. 2. invest in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss. This is Reddit's hub for discussing speculating(2) and not for discussing speculating(1) about Magic: the Gathering cards.

2008.08.13 22:25 Serendipity

/serendipity is a meta-subreddit meant to broaden the perspective of its subscribers. It takes a popular entry from a random subreddit and posts it every few hours.

2011.08.25 20:30 ZeroShift Popcorn tastes good.

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2023.03.21 03:36 cjpatster Why Gaea's Cradle is So Valuable, A Look at the Numbers

I am writing this post to invite discussion, but I fully expect to get a lot of downvotes by raising this perspective. My goal is to provide some numbers concerning the popularity and utility of Gaea's Cradle, compare that and its market value relative to other cards, and put forth some thoughts on why its perceived value is what it is.
As some of you may recall, I did some heavy data crunching a few months back (https://www.reddit.com/mtgfinance/comments/10ko7nt/full_analysis_of_value_drivers_in_mtg_pre2002_up/) and I pegged Gaea's Cradle as an anomaly. My model predicted the price of cards from 7th edition and earlier and it worked fairly well with most cards, but it was way off on some cards, notably, Cradle and FOW. I received a lot of feedback on those two cards and why they were worth what they were worth, but while addition of many other variables (like popularity among different formats) allowed me to eventually explain the value of FOW, a model that predicted the value of Cradle correctly eluded me. I always predicted it around $350 or less. So what gives? Lets look at the numbers and facts.
Gaea's Cradle was published in Urza's Saga in 1998 and commands a tcg market price of $967.31 and a buylist market price of $680.11. It is a land, produces green mana in a ramp function, and there were (by my estimates) roughly 340K copies printed. Notably it is on the reserved list.
In terms of its popularity. It is popular in Legacy, appearing in 9% of registered decks with roughly 3.34 copies per deck it appears in. It also features in Vintage, appearing in 6% of decks with roughly 2.14 copies per deck it appears in and appears in 5% of EDH decks. I give it a weighted popularity score of 6.288 across all formats.
Gaea's Cradle is the 12th most popular unique reserved list card in legacy, 21st most popular in vintage, and 7th most popular in EDH. It is, on average, the 13th most popular reserved list card across formats where it is legal. It is also the most expensive reserved list card printed after 1994 (excluding the From the Vault Cards), commanding roughly 50% more than the next most expensive card, the Mox Diamond, and more than double the most expensive after that, the Lion's Eye Diamond, despite both of those cards being more popular in legacy and Mox Diamond being more popular in EDH. Its also worth noting that print runs are similar among those three cards. Functionally its an exceedingly efficient means to produce mana, it costs nothing to play (its a land), and its hard to remove (its a land), but its green, making it one of many many solutions that green has for efficient ramp. Its mechanism of mana production is fairly unique and very powerful, nearly broken, but its ultimate function is not unique, particularly within the green color pie.
There is no arguing that Gaea's Cradle is an exceedingly powerful card that is worthy of a high price tag. However, to me there is no clear reason why it should cost nearly a thousand dollars. It costs far more than other cards of the same era that are on the reserved list, are more popular, have similar age, and similar print runs. In the land of logic, I would suggest that the Mox Diamond is the $1000+ card and Gaea's Cradle should be half what it demands, maybe less. So why do collectors value it as highly as they do and over other cards like mox diamond, lion's eye diamond, volcanic island, underground sea, etc? My best guess is that this is not a case of functionality or logic, but one of hype/iconography. I.E. It costs that much because it is Gaea's Cradle, "Nuff Said". This puts it in an interesting place all by itself in MTG collectibles. Every other $900+ RL card was printed in 1994 or earlier and their value is driven as much by the mythic status of those early years as it is power and playability. Cradle stands alone on the highest price pedestal among cards from 1995-1998 and its price appears to have somewhat decoupled from functionality and popularity in play, achieving its own mythic status that drives price even higher. This may ultimately make it vulnerable to a fall in price if the iconography doesn't maintain with the next generation of MTG collectors, but for now, logic be damned, its worth what people will pay for it.
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2023.03.15 21:58 GrayLando Lord of the Rings Gift Bundle Price Spike Reminiscent of Compleat Bundle

Surprised to see these selling for $150 today on TCGplayer. Particularly considering they were going for sub-$49 on Amazon just the other day. Feels a lot like the Compleat Bundle hype. I mean this is a product that's like 3-4 months out from release. Certainly, Hasbro can gauge demand and modify print numbers that far out, right?
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2023.03.11 17:34 Prid3 Market Movements 03/11/23 - SLD Violent Outburst, Undermountain Adventurer, Alpha Authority, Wake the Past, Norn's Decree, Esika's Chariot, SLD Dramatic Reversal, Haunted One

Hello everyone, Pride here with another edition of Market Movements where I analyze the biggest market movers both in terms of TCG supply decreases and/or Cark Kingdom (CK) buylist increases of the past week(ish). As always if you want live updates I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @Prid3MTG because almost everything you see here today will have already been posted there and usually a whole lot more. Note that going forward I plan on posting these on Saturday/Sunday aka after MTG Stocks does their biggest winners/losers article and I don't plan to include anything that they cover.
Battle Royale nonfoils have functionally sold through 100% of their supply since last month and so I feel good about calling this one a few weeks ago. Nonfoils are now consistently moving at 20, Foils at 30, so I still recommend grabbing any cheap singles/sealed that you can come across. Strong card + strong IP was always going to be a winning combo (IMO) and a card that's played in ~25% of all green EDH decks puts it in the top 0.1% of playables in the game.
Violent Outburst this one I'm not looking at supply so much as "revenue generated" because this card is selling obscenely well on TCG and I think is a top pick to buy some playsets, throw them in a box and check back in 12-24 months to be pleasantly surprised. Not only is the art stunning but the card itself is a must have 4-of for any Cascade deck which guarantees consistent competitive demand over time. Rhinos, Glimpse and Living End all play 4 no questions asked. Very high on these if you want something low maintenance that will make you smile in a year or two when you dig them out of a random shoebox in your closet.
[[Undermountain Adventurer]] is the big "penny spec" winner having sold through 72% of its supply since last week. This is off the back of the card being added to treasure chests in MODO which means that Legacy players can finally start brewing with it in Legacy. All versions are experiencing significant decreases in supply as a result since it's poised to earn slots in numerous competitive shells. On a similar note both [[Ravenloft Adventurer]] (down 27%) and [[Caves of Chaos Adventurer]] (down 24%) are moving as well for similar reasons so this entire branch of 4 CMC Initiative cards (all versions) should be on your "watchlist" so to speak.
[[Alpha Authority]] supply down 60% off the back of [[Light-Paws, Emperor's Voice]] Pioneer Aura decks playing copies. Price hasn't budged but given that it's a single print uncommon from an older set you never know. Wouldn't bother with these unless it really starts popping off. Maybe foils but eh.
[[Wake the Past]] supply is down 55% week-over-week and I'm kinda puzzled on this one if I'm being honest. I assume it's Commanders like Urtet and Alibou but the card seems medium at best so I don't understand why it's selling through enormous portions of its supply. Content creator plug is my best guess. I'm in for a few sets that I plan to sell like wildfire if it pops off because I don't see how this card can be worth anything long-term.
[[Norn's Decree]] supply is also down 50% from what seems like pure hype in my opinion. I've seen a few people plugging it on Twitter as an EDH "staple" but it reads marginal to me and I don't expect it to have any legs once this initial hype/fomo/whatever passes. I'm in for a handful of playsets that I plan to move as quickly as humanly possible once it pops off because I do not want to be caught dead holding these in a month or two.
[[Esika's Chariot]] supply is down 47% week-over-week as it continues to post impressive Pioneer results as a 4-of in both Greasefang and Gruul vehicles. Solid in EDH too as a durable engine. Great buylist backing, great TCG Direct premium, churns insanely well, here's an actual bread-and-butter spec that has a basis in reality (unlike the last 2). Very deep on these myself mostly from the EU.
[[Mana ConfluenceSLD]] both nonfoil versions of this card are chewing through supply with SLDs being down 33% and JOU 27% over the past week. Same story as Chariot; this is a Pioneer staple, Pioneer is hot right now, players need their copies one way or another.
Dramatic Reversal good to see cEDH moving cards because the SLD versions of these are down 32% week-over-week due to being the only bling version of a popular infinite mana enabler for the format. The idea here is to jam it on [[Isochron Scepter]] and then untap mana rocks for infinite mana. Scepter has always been a "free money" card from the EU, highly recommend it the next time it gets a reprint, but until then grab any cheap SLD Reversals that you can find.
[[Personal Tutor]] supply down 30% week-over-week since a good chunk of Legacy pros are high on Doomsday in this post-ban Legacy world where White Plume and EI are gone. No reprint since Portal, played as a 4-of, looks like a solid buy if you can source cheap(ish) copies.
[[PredictODY]] was another big Legacy winner (theoretically replaces EI) whose foils functionally sold out on TCG (I don't count the $300 copies) and the regular copies sold through 30% of their supply as well. Not very high on this spec outside of foils (and even then I'd want a fast flip, not a hold) so I'm passing on these personally because I don't see this lasting as the new EI replacement in Delver.
[[Haunted One]] supply is down about 28% from what I presume is generic tribal (EDH) demand bolstered by the fact that both J22 and ONE introduced powerful new Rat lords that can both act as viable Commanders. The card should also be good in the upcoming Sliver deck, it's good in any existing Vampire/Zombie decks, you get the idea. Sex Tribal sells.
Plaza of Heroes Extended Arts supply only down around 20% but CK buylist is basically 1:1 TCG low, it's a 4-of in Esper Legends in Standard and it's popular in EDH for what should be obvious reasons. Not a buyer as supply is still relatively deep but it's a card I'm watching given this new multi-format demand.
Not specs but fun observations:
[[Labyrinth of Skophos]] someone out there is consistently buying a tremendous number of copies of this card every few months. I mean hundreds upon hundreds at a time. Then they wait for the price to lower back down to bulk, for new bricks to get posted, etc. and repeat the process. The card is horrifically unplayable so God knows why they're doing this but I can basically guarantee you that at some point we'll get a new [[Seance]] style post from someone with over ten thousand copies.
Woolly Mammoths someone is also trying to buy out this specific Theme Deck Woolly Mammoths card for some unknown reason. Wouldn't touch copies with a 10-foot pole even if they cost 10 cents or whatever, I'm not recommending this to anyone as a spec, I just think it's interesting to see the random nonsense that people are trying to spike.
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2023.03.09 18:39 ZaxxonD Festival in a Box: Minneapolis 2023 $270

1 draft Brothers war booster box
1 draft Phyrexia One booster box
1 Mystery Booster - convention edition booster box
some cards
from https://www.reddit.com/mtgfinance/comments/11mxc3x/minneapolis_festival_in_a_box_270_for_3_booste?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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2023.03.03 19:56 Prid3 Market Movements 03/03/23 - LOTD Gift Bundles, UMA Goryo's Vengeance, Primeval Herald, Astral Dragon, Slicer, Hired Muscle, Borderless SNC Triomes, S&C Graaz, EAF Gwenna, Eyes of Gaea

If you enjoy these posts I recommend you follow me @Prid3MTG on Twitter to get live updates as opposed to waiting for my weekly(ish) threads here.
First, muppetofaman23 deserves a massive shoutout for their post about LOTR Gift Bundles. They are absolutely right; these are way too cheap given their contents and scream "free money." I'm confident that these are going to be the ONE Compleat Bundles of the Middle-earth set and I highly recommend that people looking for good value to grab some. I'm buying them off of Amazon like everyone else so I have no sinister motive telling you this, I'm not trying to sell you on overpriced TCG copies or anything, place your risk-free Amazon preorders before the rest of the world catches on. MTG Finance is often a game of exploiting knowledge gaps instead of price gaps and this a clear example of that.
Phyresis Outbreak both versions sold through 80% of their supply this week in no small part because of a Nitpicking Nerds Youtube video flagging it as one of the top cards in the set. The card is an obvious inclusion in any Poison/Proliferate deck but given how niche it is I'd be looking to sell sooner rather than later because this price doesn't seem like it will stick.
Fiend Artisan was mentioned last week but it's supply is down another 50% week-over-week so I highly recommend snagging some if you needed them for personal use or if you were looking to spec on it. Card is moving very fast due to Modern hype in Tyvar "combo" decks but also some Legacy and EDH play tossed in as well.
Goryo's Vengeance down 40% due to Modern Reanimator as people continue to find new and creative ways to abuse Atraxa, Grand Unifier in all formats. Worth noting that the Legacy version of this deck is also seeing some love because Shallow Grave sold through a good chunk of its supply too. Since that one's Reserved List and NM copies are reasonably cheap I'd consider snagging some of those too if it keeps dropping. Goryo, much like Artisan, is moving quickly at current prices so I like grabbing a few sets if you can find some at decent prices.
Primeval Herald aka "Primeval Titan at home" down 40% from generic casual appeal as a rampy Elf that hits plenty of high notes in formats like EDH. No specific deck or plug that I'm aware of, just low supply and plenty of organic demand from casual players who love ramping out Battlecruisers.
Secret Lair Pir, Imaginative Rascal down 33% due to being a core inclusion in +1/+1 counter, Proliferate and Super Friends decks all of which are receiving love from ONE.
Chancellor of the Annex down 30% due to its revitalized popularity in Modern, Legacy and Vintage mostly in the White Initiative decks but also in Modern White Weenie builds. Most of them are playing the full 4 to protect against things like Force of Will for your turn 1 [[White Plume Adventurer]]s and the like and since it only has one pseudo reprint in The List supply is still reasonably shallow. I really like that it's seeing play in 3 Constructed formats too.
Extended Art Astral Dragon has also moved about 30% of its listings since last month and has a very nice TCG Direct premium. The card is big, bomby and fun so I get the appeal since I'm also a fan of "fair" cards that can still reasonably end games and this certainly qualifies.
Painter's Servant and Grindstone are both down 28% due to Blue 8-Cast Painter picking up steam in Legacy. Neither card has a nonfoil reprint yet and the price of both certainly reflects that.
Regular Foil copies of Slicer, Hired Muscle are steadily draining from TCG as the card is proving to be a force in EDH and cEDH alike. Foils are up to $15 on TCG Direct since there's basically no competition in selling them. Most people here probably remember the Shattered Glass versions moving a few weeks ago and these seem to be heading in a similar direction. I actually just like buying anything Slicer at this point, literally any version, because it's looking like the big long-run winner from the Transformers set. Slicer is moving multiple cards including [[Kediss, Emberclaw Familiar]] and Extended Art Staff of Titania (both regulars are foils) both of which are down 25-30% week-over-week on the back of so many people buying this deck. Kediss has too much supply for my blood but I don't mind grabbing some Staves to go with your Slicers.
Borderless SNC Triomes are ramping up fast on Card Kingdom's buylist and so most are worth taking a peek at. Spara's Headquarters is up to $14 cash for example which is TCG low for the card. Given that these see play in every legal format and are fantastic in EDH they should all continue to do well over time which them all attractive specs at some point or another. They're all worth checking out either as specs or for your personal copies. For reference:
Step-and-Compleat Showcase Foils of Graaz, Unstoppable Juggernaut are moving swiftly due to Modern hype in [[Trash for Treasure]] and Neoform decks. I don't see either having legs but S&C foils are scarce and were only $2 prior to this so they've gained a substantial amount since then.
Extended Art Foils of Gwenna, Eyes of Gaea are circling the drain on TCG. I'm told she's part of a new Pioneer combo with Acererak that kills on turn 3 so I think this is a preemptive buyout of sorts. These are basically gone already so if you can find any at old prices it's probably going to be a quick flip for some decent profit.
Extended Art Monster Manual both regular and foils are selling on TCG for the same at CK's cash buylist price which tells me that the price is probably going to start climbing from here. Good time to buy in if you wanted any. I'm honestly kind of surprised at how cheap these are because this struck me as a no-brainer EDH card. I was under the impression players loved these Elvish Piper effects and this one even finds you action first.
People are taking big bites out of [[Greasefang, Okiba Boss]] and [[Light-Paws, Emperor's Voice]] bricks on TCG as we head into Pioneer RCQ season as both have proven to be Top Tier decks with broad player appeal given their fast + aggressive playstyles. As NEO rares their supply feels almost endless but to give you an idea Paws had ~550 unique sellers on TCG a month ago and is down to ~350 today. I'd keep an eye on these cards going long but for what it's worth I haven't put a dime in either.
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2023.03.02 20:22 GrayLando March Discussion Thread

New thread for discussion and suggestion. Items of note for the month ahead:
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2023.02.19 18:48 serendipitybot is there any way to have tcgplayer show search results for *foils* without clicking through to the card? [X-Post From /r/mtgfinance]

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2023.02.16 05:04 DDrose2 Not sure if this is the right place to ask but got a question regarding name of cards and grading

Hi all not sure if this is the right place to ask or if mtgfinance is the better place. But recently I have graded an archeon the everchosen card from the warhammer secret lair but it came back as najeela the blade blossom which is technically the correct name and it does have the correct collector number .
I did a check online and saw that for street fighter cards they kept their name rather than have a new names of their counterpart from I think BRO or ONE. I tried to find cards from arcane but none were for sale
Is this a grading error on the part of the submission? Thank all for the help I advance and if such post are not allowed do let me know and I will remove it
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2023.02.01 18:20 cjpatster Analysis of Value Drivers in MTG pre-2002 Part 2: Over/Under and RL

Analysis of Value Drivers in MTG pre-2002 Part 2: OveUnder and RL
EDIT: So after all of the discussion about FOW and Cradle predictions I went back and got my hands on data on relative popularity and # of copies of cards in all formats of MTG (standard, modern, legacy, vintage, pauper, pioneer, etc, etc) and also created new popularity metrics weighted by cards per deck. I also created two universal popularity metrics for cards across all formats. With these additional 25 predictors in hand, I reran the models. Fit improved a bit, but most interestingly I found that FOW's new price target was $44, which is more reasonable, but Cradle stayed at $242. The popularity of FOW in legacy drove up the price when added to the model, but its still overpriced IMO. However, at this point, no data in hand can explain Cradle's remarkably high price point.

Hey all, this is the first follow up post in the series. You can read Post # 1 here (https://www.reddit.com/mtgfinance/comments/10ko7nt/full_analysis_of_value_drivers_in_mtg_pre2002_up/) . So, today’s post provides a little update on the model results, shares a requested partial dependence plot (will explain that for those who don’t understand) of the effect of set, and provides some oveunder estimates and some discussion of what it means in this context to be over vs undervalued.
So as a reminder, I built a mega-database of mtg card attributes for cards from Alpha up through 7th edition, excluding foils, and tried some machine learning to determine the drivers of value and whether any cards were under or over valued according to the model. In this update I expanded the database a bit, adding additional attributes including “Legendary” (Y/N), Color (Black, White, Dimir, etc), Presence/Absence attributes for each color (a distinct category from color casting cost). I also ran additional models such as just on cards from “The Dark and earlier” and “After the Dark”. At the very bottom of this post there is some additional info about the modeling framework since I got questions from folks that aren’t familiar with those tools.
Main (Variable Importance) Results Update:
The most interesting thing that popped out was that for cards printed after The Dark, reserved list status finally rises to the top. So for all of you hot on reserved list cards, it is in fact the most important predictor of value, provided you are only talking about cards printed after The Dark and beyond. For that subset of cards, after that predictor, its EDH popularity, set, legendary status, color (5 color cards tend to be more valuable in this subset of the data, whereas cards with blue in them are most important among colors in the full dataset), total number of copies across printings, casting cost, etc. etc.
Cards that are over priced and under priced:
Before sharing, a few caveats. First, I’ve now got 12 different models that fit the data well and they don’t all agree at the individual card level. Some are over or under fit to various portions of the dataset. So I take everything with a grain of salt. Second, the model has some obvious shortcomings, basically information that it isn’t privy to, like the number of printings of cards printed AFTER 7th edition. It also doesn’t include rules text as predictors and that surely is important. Finally, there is a big difference among ways that someone uses the term “under valued”. I.E. There could be some great card that folks just haven’t recognized as being great and doesn’t appear in many decks that will spike in value once it is discovered by the community. This is different from what I’m presenting, cards that statistically, given their attributes, should cost more (or less) than they currently do.
In terms of highlighting some cards, I applied a few criteria. First, a card should be consistently over or under across model outputs. So for example, some models highlights transmute artifact as an undervalued card but others thought it was pretty close to being accurately priced. Second, the card’s initial value should be at least $5 to make individual cards worth moving. No one cares if some 10 cent cards are really worth 90 cents, its a lose money situation even if they are worth 9x more. Third, cards should be predicted to be worth at least 50% - 100% more than current market price. Fourth, it had to pass the sniff test, i.e. it had to make some sense to me. For example, the under $1K model predicted Revised Swords to Plowshares was a $22 card. Maybe it is (or was), but the model doesn’t know how much it’s been reprinted into the ground lately and so I thought it was off on that one. Ultimately this really narrowed down the list a great deal and what I’m sharing isn’t anywhere near exhaustive. I just cherry-picked ones that met the criteria above and seemed like good pickups, were examples of where the model I think got it wrong, and a few examples of cards that are potentially overpriced. So hold onto your butts, here goes my best Rudy impression. I look forward to some vigorous discussion about these predictions….
A few examples of cards that seem undervalued:
Folks, FOLKS!!! (J/K) Of these I really like the Copy Artifact. It does feel like its undervalued and its reserved list so we’ll never see it again. Its very powerful, sees play in EDH, could actually see more play than it currently does. Maybe its not worth $105, but it certainly feels like a steal at $60. I think it got dragged down with the MTG30 and recession fears more than it should have and I expect it will recover nicely. Fellwar Stone from Foreign Black Border was interesting as well, it seems a little high, but then many FBB cards that don’t see a lot of EDH play have oddly high prices. So perhaps this is reasonable. People love those black borders paired with old art.
Surprising Overvalued Cards:
OK so I’m going to get some comments here, but the two cards that were identified as “overvalued” and really jumped out at me were Force of Will and Gaea’s Cradle.
Ok so I know I’m going to get told this is flat wrong, but after looking at it a while, I think it really bears thinking about.
First, why is Cradle so expensive? Its more expensive than the most expensive revised dual land, and there are both MORE copies of it out there and it also appears in 1/3 the number of EDH decks on EDH rec as the classic dual lands. Its extremely powerful and reserved list, but the same can be said of many other reserved list cards from this era and many other options for mana production in green have come out over the years. I guess after weighing those factors, I am not shocked by the target price of $241.26. Maybe that is too low, but I wouldn’t go out and buy one of these now at market price after looking at the predictions.
Second, I thought the Force of Will price prediction of $8 was flat wrong. My expectation was that if I manually changed the casting cost to zero, which it essentially is, it would bounce up. So I tried that and I was right, it doubled in predicted price when I did that, but it was still coming out as a $16 cards instead of a ~$80 card. What the model is keying in on, I think, is that there are a ton of copies out there from Alliances (I estimated ~2.8 million) and it is not reserved list. It could be that its iconic status, and its power in legacy which requires folks to have 4 copies instead of 1, are key factors keeping the price where it is. But I thought it was an interesting outcome of the modeling exercise and I wonder if it is indeed overpriced. I know there has been vigorous discussion about the future of FoW with the recent reprint and this is a point in favor of the argument that price memory is a big part of what is keeping it afloat at the moment. Darn darn darn, and I thought I was so smart picking up some at $70 a piece when DMR came out.
The Effect of Set
I got a bunch of questions about the effect of “set” as a predictor in the models and how this covaries with age, print run, etc. If you look below you’ll find a quick description of the modeling framework and that should answer some of these questions, but in short, no, it shouldn’t be a major issue. Its not like a regression model or something like that. But given the interest in the effect of “SET” this is that effect. These bars in the bar graph are the effect of “SET” on card value all other things being equal and accounted for. So after we account for print run, age, etc, etc, we still have some additional variation explained by the “SET” effect and this Partial Dependence Plot shows what that looks like:

That’s all for now, I’ll talk more about set print run estimates/models at a later date.
Appendix - Methods Explanation:
- Random Forest: In a nutshell a random forest is kind of a souped up version of CART (classification and regression tree) analysis with various types of nested bootstrapping built into the analysis. A simple CART basically splits up data into relatively homogenous groups and subgroups according the predictor variables, algorithmically exploring the dataset to determine the best predictor variables and break points and explain the most variation using the least number of variables and splits. It produces a pretty “Decision Tree” to look at but its sensitive to covariation among variables, outliers, and a host of other issues that can affect the results. Random Forest essentially does this many many times, but each time the model only uses a random chunk of the dataset (say 70% of the data) and also a random chunk of the predictor variables that could be used (say 80% of the variables, but the user chooses). At the end of the analysis you get a “forest” of “decision trees” and then these are summarized to give us information about which variables are most important among trees in the forest. This approach helps break correlations between variables, effects of outliers, etc. They are also really good at detecting non-linear relationships, breakpoints, thresholds, etc. You can feed it continuous or categorical predictors, up to a point. Overall, its extremely flexible but its not considered a causal analysis by any means. Its data fitting, it tells us what is going on (pattern recognition) but it cannot tell us why these patterns or relationships exist. That is important to keep in mind.
- Partial Dependence Plots: This is a way to visualize the effect of a given predictor on the response variable with the fitted dataset in a very useful way, I would simply describe it as “The effect of the predictor on the response, on average, across all other combinations of variable states.” I.E. the relationship doesn’t always look this way, because of interactions and other things messing with it, but on average this is the true underlying effect of the predictor on the response. And you can do this for both categorical predictors (bar graphs) and continuous predictors (line graphs).
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2023.01.25 03:56 cjpatster Full Analysis of Value Drivers in MTG pre-2002 (up to 7th edition): Lessons and Opportunities

Full Analysis of Value Drivers in MTG pre-2002 (up to 7th edition): Lessons and Opportunities
This is a follow up on a post I made a few months back, and likely the first in a short series of related posts. I'm traveling at the moment and won't always be answering comments in real time, but wanted to get this up while the numbers I pulled for the the data analysis were still correct! I intend to do a follow up posts with additional analyses, graphs, etc. based on comments, questions, and requests.
Main Message: I can empirically show that the conventional wisdom on this thread regarding drivers of value in MTG cards holds true. For the pool of all MTG cards up through 7th edition, it’s all about age and rarity, but within the cheaper (< $1000) stuff from that period, EDH clearly drives the market. Model suggests that in some cases assigned rarity leads to under or over valuing assets relative to set print run and total number of cards in a set, further the results suggest that there are other opportunities for acquiring undervalued assets for future profit.
Below you can find musings, main results summary, information about the dataset used, and the analyses.

Musings: The biggest eye openers for me were that set print run on its own is misleading, you need to account for number of cards in a set and consider card print run. This leads to the potential for underappreciated "uncommon" cards in the early expansion sets such as legends which are incredibly rare, rarer even than early years "rares" from other sets, i.e assigned rarity on its own is incredibly misleading but it drives prices. There is some potential unrealized value of some of the 4BB and FBB cards which may yet spike in the American market. Additionally some cards that aren't reserved list but haven't ever been reprinted such as camouflage and false orders may be undervalued since there are so few copies in existence (Example: should Unlimited False Orders, even though its a common, really be only $2 since there just aren't that many of them ever printed?), similarly some cards like the reserved list card raging river may be undervalued. Additionally, its truly amazing just how much EDH drives card prices for this sector of the the game's history. If popularity in EDH ever begins to wane, it could spell trouble for large swathes of this segment of the market. Finally, itts also fun to build a data set like this, I learned a lot! For example, who here was aware of a fun basic land misprint in FBB called "Wald" that is technically a forest but has the art of a plains? I bought one immediately, I thought that was a sweet looking early years misprint to have and not too pricey.

Main Results Summary
I. For all ~7000 cards in the pool (save foils which were excluded), in order of importance, value is dictated by 1) Card Print Run Size, 2) Set Name, 3) Age of the Card, 4) Assigned Rarity (this is very interesting actually - see below), 5) Total copies of the card across all printings, 6) Prevalence in EDH Decks, 7) Reserve List Status, 8) Type of Card (basic land, enchantment, etc), 9) Number of Printings, 10) Total casting cost, and everything else just falls to the wayside. This random forest model was fit to natural log transformed card value data and the R^2 value of the model (% variation explained) was 93%.

Modeled vs Predicted Data

Variable Importance Plot
II. For cards currently valued at < $1000 (excluding the really expensive stuff), the story changes a little bit. Here the order of importance is 1) Card Print Run Size, 2) Set Name, 3) EDH Ranking, 4) Total Copies across printings, 5) Age of the Card, 6) % EDH Decks, 7) Rarity, 8) Card Type, 9) Reserve List Status, 10) Total Casting Cost, 11) Number of Printings, 12) Colorless Casting Cost, 13) Which printing of the card it is (1st, 2nd, etc), and then the rest of the predictors mainly fall out. This model was fit to raw value data and the R^2 value was 74%.

Observed vs Expected
Variable Importance Plot
Dataset: The data were from every set including foreign black border that was printed up until 7th edition. Foils were excluded because foils don't occur in all sets and sales data on them is notoriously poor and volatile. Data were pulled from a variety of sources and some things were modeled as there is no available information out there. I started with scryfall data requests to pull down information including card name, set, edh rank, card type, assigned rarity, artist, language, value in USD, value in euros, casting cost. From there I broke casting cost into multiple sub categories including total casting cost, #’s of X’s, colorless mana, # black mana, etc., etc. I pulled in reserve list status, days since printed, set type (core vs expansion), border color, legality in old school, vintage, legacy, edh, whether the art/card was “canceled” or not (e.g. stone throwing devils). Things I calculated/estimated included which printing (1st, second, etc), total number of printings. For print runs for each card, I started with what is well accepted to be true (see earlier reddit posts on this sub - https://www.reddit.com/mtgfinance/comments/8d8fvb/the_definitive_guide_to_print_runs/) for the ABU, ATQ, LEG, DARK, etc. I also took note of speculative estimates for Revised, Fallen Empires, etc. but didn’t use those estimates. I then pulled available information on copies available for sale of rares of each set and correlated those with known print runs to see if the relationship could be estimated, good news, it can, quite well actually (R^2 ~ 0.9). I then interpolated the print runs for the sets where we don’t have print run estimates and cross validated those numbers against the sets where we have unconfirmed guesses. From there I estimated things like total number of copies of a specific version of the card and all versions of the card. All told the dataset had 36 columns of data. To estimate the actual value of each card in USD I started by taking USD values and imputing converted euro values. Then all NA’s, etc. were looked up manually from auction sales (necessary for canceled cards, rare alpha cards, etc). Then I cross referenced card values from various printings across sets to look for outliers that indicated incorrect data. So for example, if a foreign black border card came up as 3 cents when the revised version was $2 I knew we had a problem. In all cases “bad values” were replaced either by looking up values or in rare cases, applying a median multiplier to convert from “good values” of the same card from another set. I.E. The median multiplier from 4BB to 4th Edition could be used to estimate missing 4BB values.
Analysis: I’m glossing over a ton here but in a nutshell, analysis happened in two phases, first a visual exploration of correlations to check the data further and better understand the relationships. Second, I applied a machine learning statistical analysis called Random Forest to the data to identify the relative importance of predictors, asses overall ability to predict card value, and ability to identify undervalued cards (investment opportunities). Because of the large value spread I natural log transformed the response data for the full value model but in the model focused on cards under $1000 I fit the model to raw untransformed data. I also played with boosted regression trees, mixed effects models, and other subsets of the data but I’m not displaying those here, I don’t think they add anything substantive to the story.
submitted by cjpatster to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2023.01.23 06:14 HonorBasquiat Prediction Game: Out of the Magic products announced for release in 2023, which do you think will be the best from a Magic finance and speculation perspective?

I figure this could be a fun discussion and thread for the mtgfinance to look back on several months to a year from now. Sure we don't have much to make our determination and predictions on but that's half the fun.
  1. Out of the following announced Magic products announced for release in 2023, which product do you anticipate will be the best from a Magic Finance and speculation perspective? Explain your answer
  2. Which of these products do you think will be the worst from a Magic finance and speculation perspective?
Upcoming 2023 Magic Product Releases
To get the conversation started, here are a few of my thoughts and predictions:
March of the Machine will be introducing a new card type (Battle), closes out a prominent story arc, is an event set and Mark Rosewater has said it is his most ambitious design ever. I anticipate this set will do a lot of new things that are unprecedented which means a greater chance for balancing and development issues on the higher end of the power spectrum which tends to fair well for good Magic finance for a set.
The Lord of the Rings set being the first full fledged Universes Beyond set is a major milestone and Wizards has a lot of incentive to ensure this product is successful and well received, especially considering the prominent IP it is using. I anticipate this set will have lots of exciting and elusive showcase treatments and I believe the prominence of the IP could make it desirable as a collectors item from non-Magic players. I also can imagine this set including allied fetchland reprints (which are long overdue for a mass reprint).
I find that when Wizards does something for the first time for a product line that is more innovative, these products tend to be very well received and often have a higher power level and secondary market value (examples include Modern Masters 1, Modern Horizons 1, the first Secret Lair Drops and War of the Spark). Both March of the Machine and The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-Earth seem to meet that criteria.
Wilds of Eldraine I could imagine being the worst target. The original Eldraine had a lot of development issues, so I imagine they will be more conservative and work extremely hard to ensure that doesn't happen again. It's also the set that will follow March of the Machine which I anticipate will have a higher power level and they might want the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction by nerfing the power level of Wilds of Eldraine a bit.
submitted by HonorBasquiat to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2023.01.20 04:10 Overall_Hall_369 Stats - Phyrexia: All Will Be One

Stats - Phyrexia: All Will Be One

WotC published the collectors information the other day so I spent some time today having a go at working out what are the chances of pulling each one of the types of cards.
Feel free to download / edit / suggest / fix the spreadsheet. It has multiple tabs, with the calculations.
It's not going to be 100% perfect. I had to make some educated guesses. If you spot anything, please let me know and I'll correct it. I think the margin of error should be <5%.
Last time many people enquired about the 2:1 Rare:Mythic Rare ratio I have used. I strongly think it is correct. The reasoning is found here.
In summary,
  • Mythic rares (Step-and-Compleat Foil) are the hardest to pull (there is only 1 slot on the collector packs, there are 28 of them, and this is a CM slot).
  • In Draft boosters, they say "A Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare Planeswalker can be found in <1% of boosters". Indeed, it's ~0.06%
  • There is a new type of booster and some cards are unique to it: the Compleat Edition Booster, which is found on the Compleat Edition Bundle ($80).
  • To get 1 of everything by yourself you are gonna have to spend $800 on 10x Compleat Edition bundles, almost $5k on 242x Collector packs, and maybe $1k on 230x Set packs.
Edit: Thank you for all your observations and constructive feedback. There are some excellent points about the methodology I used. Full disclosure: English is not my first language and maybe some of the terms I used were not the correct ones.
What I wanted to illustrate here on the "Cost to get 1 of each" column, was that if there are X number of cards of an specific type, how many boosters did you need to crack in order to get at least X cards of that type. This is assuming an (unrealistic) amount of luck that you don't get duplicates. This is the lowest number. A realistic number will be a lot higher because you will definitely get duplicates, as after the first pack, the probabilities change. If you are not seeking a copy but let's say a playset, the numbers start to even out, but I appreciate that the way I phrased it is misleading. Any feedback on how to improve the terminology would be appreciated. I have added more info on this comment below.
Edit 2: Thank you u/volcryn07 for pointing out about the C and U ratios. I have amended this now.
submitted by Overall_Hall_369 to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2023.01.05 22:02 The_Real_Pavalanche [Magic: the Gathering] Séance Guy – Séances, magic destruction, Bitcoin, bounties, bribes and market manipulation.

This is my first post to HobbyDrama so I hope this is up to the standards of the sub. I know there are quite a few posts made about Magic: the Gathering here but after a search I couldn’t find any about this particular tale, so I thought I’d have a go at writing this myself.


Magic: the Gathering (MTG) is a collectible trading card game played all over the world and made by Wizards of the Coast (WOTC). The cards for the game are printed in multiple languages and as of the time of writing (Jan 2023), it is estimated that there are over 20,000 unique cards made for the game, with over 500,000,000 copies printed.
How many copies of a specific card are printed varies depending on the popularity of the set in which it was printed. If the set is popular and more players are buying booster packs of 15 randomly selected cards for that set, then WOTC prints more for players to buy, evenly distributing the number of unique cards depending on their rarity.
Each card has a specific monetary value attached to it and the value varies on multiple factors such as rarity, usefulness, if it’s printed in foil, how well it combos with other cards and how many are in circulation. Often, a card may seem mundane and nothing special with a low price point until a player figures out a clever way to build a deck around it and shares that idea with the community or a high-profile player is seen using it in their deck. Once that happens, demand for that card increases and the price of that card increases with it. However, if WOTC reprints that card in a new set, the overall value can go down. While new cards are obtained through the opening of booster packs from a new set, players can buy individual cards from older or new sets through the second-hand market via trading websites. Some people try to speculate when a card will increase in value and stock up on the card to sell when the price increases.
Edit: It should be noted that some people try to collect cards for speculation from the Reserved List. This is a list of cards typically from older sets that WOTC say will never be reprinted, meaning that all the cards on that that are currently in circulation are the only copies that will ever exist. Thus, many people try to collect as many of these cards as they can and limit how many others are out there in order to corner the market and increase the price. The card in question for this story is not on the Reserved List.
Now you have some back story on the commodity market of MTG, let us look at the subjects of their story…

Our Protangonist

If you have ever watched the old Yu-Gi-Oh anime, you may be familiar with a character of that show called Seto Kaiba, a wealthy CEO of a powerful corporation who is one of the worlds best players of a trading card game. Kaiba is also somewhat selfish, using his wealth to acquire powerful rare cards he does not already own and destroying them, making him the sole owner of the remaining copies. The protagonist of this story is something of a real-life Seto Kaiba. While their true identity is unknown, we can learn a few things from them based upon the evidence listed later in this post. They have an interest in the commodity market of MTG even if they aren’t a player themselves and while they may not be a CEO of a corporation, they seem to have made a decent amount of money from investing/mining bitcoin and an idea on how to raise the value of a card. As no one knows their true name, they will just be known by the name given to them by the MTG community: Séance Guy (SG)

The Card

The card in question is called Séance which was released on the 3rd February 2012 as part of the Dark Ascension set. I won’t go into the details of what it does or how useful it is, but it’s something of a divisive card for players. SG has stated that they think the card is garbage, while other players claim the card is very powerful. Depending on the situation and the deck one wants to build, it could be potentially very handy. But the usefulness of the card isn’t that important to the story so much as its value.
EDIT: As someone has commented on this post below, there were likely more of this card printed than in a usual set. Innistrad, the previous set to Dark Ascension was immensly popular and led to WOTC producing far more packs of this this set than any before to meet demand. When Dark Ascension was released, WOTC produced just as many as Innistrad, but it was far less popular.

Destroying Séance

On the 10th April 2015, a Redditor with the username u/jobs141910 created a post on the sub Jobs4Bitcoins expressing discontent with Channel Fireball (a card game store based in California) and their policy on only shipping a maximum of 12 copies of the same card purchased on their website. They proposed an offer for someone in the Santa Clara area of California to go Channel Fireball’s storefronts and purchase their entire stock of Séance cards. The offer is to pay transport to the stores, the cost of the cards and payment for the job itself, with a contingency should the store not sell this person the whole stock:
So I need someone to go to their location and purchase all of their inventory of Séance, one of their cards. I can reimburse you for the ride there and back ($10 USD), your effort ($50 USD), and for all the Séance's purchased (up to $1000 USD). If they won't sell you more than 12 even though you are at their store location I'll pay you the full amount anyways ($60 USD). The cards have to be destroyed in such a way that restoration is impossible. That means they can't just be drenched in water or torn in half. They should be burned if possible.
Someone did take the offer and visited Channel Fireball’s stores, but they received the same response as SG and that they could not buy their whole stock of the card. SG edits their post saying the offer is now off the table and he will make a new post with a new venture.
Two days later, on the 12th April 2015, SG is back on Jobs4Bitcoins with a new proposal. Their offer is not limited to sourcing cards from Channel Fireball, but instead will set a $1200 budget and will pay people in Bitcoin depending on how many cards they manage to destroy and a flat rate for sending video evidence of the cards being destroyed. They even offered a tiered structure, rewarding more if over 100 cards are destroyed:
The card is currently worth $0.15 on TCGPlayer low. I'm willing to pay $0.50 per destroyed Seance if between 4 and 100 are burned, plus $10 flat for the video proof. If 100 or more are burned, I'll pay $1 per card up to $1000. Please make sure that the video clearly shows Seance's getting burned, and not random cards.
Several people took up their offer and either burned the copies they already had or sourced others to burn for this project, with one participant burning 772 copies. But within a week, the budget was used up and SG had gone over budget by $12 as he had not updated the post quick enough and paid a participant who burned an additional 4 copies. All in all, their project had destroyed 924 copies of Séance. Surely this satisfied SG’s ashlust to see this card punished, right?
Nope. On the 26th of April 2015, one week after their initial round of card destruction, SG makes another post on Jobs4Bitcoins with a bounty on Séance. This time the budget is slightly lower and the offer is for the higher tier that they offered last round:
This time, I'm moving the failed venture on Channel Fireball over to another round of free for all burning. I have $988 to spend in the same way as last round, except I'm paying $1 flat per Seance, regardless of quantity burned, plus $10 for the video proof.
To help participants, they also provided examples of what they consider to be good and bad video evidence to make sure there would not any disputes over whether participants were being truthful with their burning. This project was also a success, with 938 copies of Séance being burned. SG edits the post to say there may be a round three coming, but not for a few months. Time passed over a few months and there was no update on more bounties for Séances. After a few good memes spread about the MTG communities regarding this subject, it was eventually forgotten, but the question persisted, why were they doing this?
It was a particularly bizarre request and people began speculating about why someone would want so many cards destroyed. Perhaps they are scorned by Channel Fireball’s policy and want to destroy them out of spite? But after their initial attempt they were accepting destroyed cards from any source. Perhaps SG lost some games because of this card and they hold a grudge? The only explanation anyone got was that this was some sort of experiment, but that didn’t explain why they chose Séance specifically.

Promoting Séance

After almost eight months of silence, SG is back! But this time, they are not back with more bounties for Séance. On the contrary, they want to promote it! On the 12th December 2015, SG makes a new post on three separate subs: Jobs4Bitcoins, MagicTCG and Spikes offering to pay professional Magic: the Gathering players to build a deck centred around Séance and to play it at a pro tour. While the content of their post has since been removed by SG for concerns over legal reasons, reports claim that SG was offering a reward to any player who could build a deck around Séance and make it to the Top 8 of the Modern Pro Tour.
I would like to hire someone that is already qualified for their pro tour to build and/or pilot a deck for that tournament centered around the card Séance. If you are qualified and interested, please send me a message and we can discuss if a certain list has enough Séance presence to merit being centered around the card.
The reward for this achievement: 90.5 BTC, which at the time was worth $38,000! Any player interested had until February 2016 when the Pro Tour started to take the offer.
SG claimed that they had contacted top players directly with the offer, but apparently $38,000 was to low an offer for them as these players already had a legitimate chance of winning with their current decks, and could stand to win $100,000 in prize money and sponsorships.
While SG waited for responses to their enormous offer, they set out to promote Séance in other ways. They contacted MTG content creator u/SaffronOlive with a proposal to pay them to write articles and create videos showcasing Séance. But this raised a new question: why has SG made a U-turn and now wants to promote the card they already paid $2200 in Bitcoin to destroy? Is this a new experiment to see if the price can be affected more effectively by getting promoted as opposed to increasing rarity? Are they trying to increase the price to sell their own collection? If so and their new venture works, how much are they expecting the price to increase after the Pro Tour and how many copies can they possibly have to recoup the cost of paying a player $38,000?
February 2016 arrived and no one took SG’s offer to make it to the Top 8 of the Modern Pro Tour and it is unclear when SG removed their offer due to legal consequences.

Destroying Séance Again

A year had passed and no one had heard anything more about SG or what the next step of their plan was. Multiple posts in the MTG communities were wondering what they were up to or how their experiments had turned out, but no one had heard anything from them until the release of a new set for MTG: Modern Masters 2017. In their new set, Séance is going to be reprinted which again will affect the price of the original Dark Ascension printing which SG has been destroying and promoting for the last two years.
On the 17th March 2017, SG has returned again by making a new post on MagicTCG, this time it’s another bounty, but on the new versions of Séance and not for Bitcoin or cash, but for Reddit Gold.
I bought a lot of Reddit Gold a long time ago and have not been able to give it all out nearly fast enough over the years. I was expecting to use it to a greater effect but it seems that the reprint of Séance is giving me an opportunity to give out some of the gold now.

If you are interested in redeeming your Séances for Reddit Gold, post a picture of a torn playset of Séances (or a single foil Séance) with the name of Reddit account you would like the gold on written on the text box.
They also offered to donate to charity on behalf of the participants if they did not want Reddit Gold:
If you do not want or already have Reddit Gold, write that you want a $4 donation to go to Unsung (a charity that accepts bitcoin) and I will donate to them instead of giving you gold.
As all the submissions were privately posted to SG’s account and they provided no update on how many were destroyed, we do not know how many more cards were claimed in this culling. That was the last post SG made on their account and no more was heard from them since. However, every so often in MagicTCG, someone will make a post mentioning Séance or trying to cash in on the deal long after SG’s original post and the OP and some commenters will receive Reddit Gold. Many users on the sub like to believe the is the ghost of SG bestowing gold for keeping their popular saga alive and letting the community know they are still out there.
Edit: This post was awarded Reddit gold by an anonymous user. Perhaps it was someone random, but I want to believe it was SG giving me his blessing.

The Interview

On the 31st October 2017, The Kitchen Table Magic Podcast released a Halloween podcast (Interview with SG is at 1:11:56) all about Séance with guests on to discuss various topics about it, with the most interesting guest being… SG themselves! While SG did not want to speak on the podcast directly, they agreed to answer the host’s questions and the host hired an actor to speak them out loud and distort the voice.
SG would not answer any questions regarding their motivation about the destruction and promotion of the card, but did answer that they were warned by a member of the Pro Tour legal team not to pay players to play certain deck and that SG was making a mockery of the Tournament. SG claims they were sceptical if this person was legitimate as they called SG on their personal phone number and SG had no idea how this person would have acquired it if they didn’t already have it, leading SG to believe it was a friend or someone they knew to trying to get SG to stop. SG also reveals that there were a lot more other cards burned during their initial round of bounties as some participants attempted to trick SG by burning a big pile of cards with a few Séances scattered on top.
In preparation for the Pro Tour offer, SG claims that they hired several MTG “think tanks” comprised of lesser-known professional players to help draft decks for competitive play centred around Séance to present to top players for the Pro Tour.

How Did These Experiments Affect The Price?

Before we get into the numbers, it should be noted that there are many factors involved in the price of a single card and that it is not just SG’s endeavours that affected the price. Other factors like new products and sets from WOTC can change the price and other players creating new popular decks using Séance can affect this too. But here is what happened to the price during each of SG’s actions.
Looking at the price history on MTG Goldfish, it can be seen that in April 2015, when SG first put out bounties to burn copies of Séance, the price did increase by about 10¢ by the end of May, before dropping down to its original price and staying at around $1.30 on average.
In December 2015, when SG offered to pay a player to enter the Pro Tour with a deck based around Séance, the prices did fluctuate a lot more, increasing by 90¢ just before the end of 2015. The price fell and eventually climbed to a peak at the end of January 2016 at $2.60 on average.
After that the price slowly decreased by 40¢ until March 2017 when it peaked at its highest price ever at $2.75. It has been slowly dropping in price since then and is currently valued at around 60¢. The new version of the card from Modern Masters 2017 started at about $1.10 in March 2017 and sharply sank to about 40¢ a month later where it has steadily remained since release.
EDIT: It should be noted that in March 2017, u/SaffronOlive did create a post on MtG Goldfish about Séance, and a decklist on how to build a deck around it. This article was created due to popular vote by the fans (possibly as a result of SG's new bounty on the card), but not because of sponsorship by SG. This likely contributed to the increase in price rather than SG's bounty.

So Is That It?

Not quite. SG must have had significant holdings in Bitcoin as all of their offers bar the last one were to be paid their way, with the largest amount being offered for $38,000. As you may have read in the news over the last year in 2022, Bitcoin’s value has tumbled significantly, with people losing a lot of money as a result.
Then recently, someone posted this on MagicTCG of someone selling 10,000+ copies of Séance for $2500. I am unable to find the actual listing of the sale and we cannot be 100% certain this is the same person as SG, but given OP’s comments (which have since been deleted) about the other things this person was selling and their situation, it could be likely that this is indeed the same SG. Though I remember what OP’s comments were that give validation to this theory, I have decided not to share them here as OP may have been contacted by SG asking not to share that information or to make light of what may be a difficult time for them.


With over 1000 cards being destroyed, 10,000 being collected, $2200 being paid, $38,000 being offered, tournament champions being propositioned, article writers offered to write sponsored posts, think tanks recruited, Reddit Gold being awarded and many memes being enjoyed, the incredible saga of the Séance Guy is over.
It is unclear how much the price of Séance would have become had SG successfully got a player to make it to the Top 8 in the Pro Tour, but given the $38,000 offer and that SG had 10,000 copies, the price would need to be elevated to $3.80 per card to at least break even. If sold as playsets of 4 for $15.20, SG would still have to sell 2,500 sets.
I hope you the reader enjoyed reading this as much as I did researching and writing it.
And to you, Séance Guy, if you are reading this, thank you for your experiments and strategies that has made this tale such a delight. Thank you for the Reddit Gold and wherever you are, I hope you are doing okay and I wish you all the best! You will never get me to destroy my copy of Séance.
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2023.01.03 20:21 Prid3 Market Movements 01/03/23 - Klauth's Will, Caltrops, Benevolent Hydra, Branching Evolution, The Reality Chip, Emeria's Call, Drannith Magistrate

The new year is starting off with a bang because there's a lot of great stuff happening in the market right now :O. I also just started a Twitter and you can follow me @Prid3MTG to get updates on when I make new posts and for various MTG Finance content and musings.
Cityscape Leveler is evaporating from the market and screams "significantly underpriced" to me given how quickly the remaining stock is selling. The card is seeing play in Standard (Izzet Ramp decks), Pioneer (SB of Monogreen) and even Modern (replacing Ugin in Tron). It's likely also popular in casual + EDH, possibly Cube as well, which helps to explain this sudden surge in popularity. EAFs recently exploded from 15 to 40 almost overnight so it's clearly one of the hottest Mythics in BRO that flew under everyone's radar (myself included) for a bit too long.
Unlimited Llanowar Elves llanowarelvesftw is still doing their thing and I highly recommend listing any copies that you own because they just did another big round of buys for silly prices.
Klauth's Will never struck me as anything special but it's selling though 20-25% of its remaining supply every month which tells me that EDH players do value its power and flexibility when you're getting both halves of it. There's still a decent amount of supply left but if it keeps draining like this it could easily be a $5-10 card in the foreseeable future. My advice for something like this is to buy a small brick and ideally list it on TCG Direct for ~10 bucks and wait for the price to come to you rather than flip for a meager profit.
On the topic of Gruul cards cards that are selling well it has to be said that Shadow in the Warp is a revenue behemoth and has basically been the best selling card from the set since it was released. Even compared to the #2 card [[Biotransference]] it's not particularly close to being close as the latter still has deep bricks available for purchase whereas Shadow has mostly sold through them. I really don't know when the best time to buy these will be but I do know that if you were going to keep tabs on a card from this set for pure organic growth and demand it's the undisputed king. I like the Surge Foils as long term holds, ~30 looks like it will be the floor as a buy-in, but I'd be lying if I said that they're selling nearly as well as regular copies which are functionally flying off the shelf at ~15.
7ED Caltrops is basically bought out due to being an auto-include in Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph and I think the Foils are very obvious buys given the low supply and fact that 7ED foils are already a high value collector's item. Regular copies are fine too but foils have more meat on the bone IMO. I'm also very high on Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph Surge Foils as long term holds because he's proving to be extremely popular and powerful in every branch of EDH and is doing very well on sites like CK, SCG, Hareruya, etc.
Benevolent Hydra sold through a good chunk of its remaining supply today and is down to 6 "real" listings on TCG. The card is fantastic in "Hardened Scales" decks (even at X=0) and the fact that it scales better into the lategame than many alternatives has made it a hit with the casuals. In EDH you play all of them regardless and it certainly makes the cut so it's probably heading to 17-20 range like Rodolf and Preston due to this massive casual demand for a relatively broad and popular archetype.
Speaking of which Branching Evolution is also on a big uptick and looks like a decent buy if you want one for casual or EDH. It's been climbing since the Tyranid deck was released and pairs well with the aforementioned Hydra so both cards are showing very strong signs of growth.
[[The Reality Chip]] has sold through a huge portion of its supply since last month (440 vendors then to 240 today) and while I've commonly seen it included in Modern Hammer Time as a 1-of value engine I'm struggling to explain this obscene decline in supply. Hammer Time is unquestionably a tier 1 deck and the card is very good in it but... as a 1-of. I'm guessing that there's some sort of influencer bump occurring here because nothing else really makes sense to me given that it doesn't appear to have significant EDH penetration as a generic value spell. I'd keep on eye on it for now because supply is very deep (also the Japanese alt art is dope!) so I'd wait to see if the price keeps trickling up.
I know that I've talked about the Legacy Initiative deck a fair amount already but it turns out every 4-of in that deck is moving and [[Emeria's Call]] is no exception. It's better enough than a Plains to earn slots even in Legacy and given that you'll always play these kinds of lands EDH is the demand profile is relatively robust. What I like most about DFC specs (like [[Esika, God of the Tree]]) is that they're extremely resilient to reprints (we've literally never seen them in The List, Commander decks, Standard sets, etc.) making it significantly less likely that you'll get burned or caught holding the bag.
[[Drannith Magistrate]] is either going to eat a ban or forever be relevant in EDH but unless the former comes to fruition it's probably always going to be a force on buylists and TCG Direct alike. "You can't cast your Commanders" isn't the most fun line of text ever written, especially since it has a plethora of other Staxy uses as well, but you can't argue with its efficacy so unless something changes we're looking at a de facto White staple in the same vein as an Eternal Witness.
[[Acererak the Archlich]] is popping off on Direct after getting the AspiringSpike treatment in Modern as it's a 3 card combo with [[Heartless Summoning]] and [[Relic of Legends]]. While the deck didn't strike me as anything special (I watched a few VODs) I'd definitely recommend listing any that you have to capitalize on those Direct premiums. Note that I see this as a flash-in-the-pan that will fade as quickly as it came to be so I wouldn't linger or go deep if you plan to action this. This is the time to be selling whatever you have left of these.
[[Shorikai, Genesis Engine]] has cemented itself as one of the most popular and arguably most powerful Azorius Commander ever printed and proving be to be a force in all things EDH. It's not only a grindy, resilient engine that doubles as a kill condition but it also provides support for a relatively overlooked and underutilized category of cards in vehicles. Almost more importantly it's a fun deck to pilot and play and can be as competitive or casual as you desire. For all these reasons and more we should fully expect it to continue to be a strong seller on places like Direct while having strong buylist backings from the CKs of the world.
With respect to Retro frame artifacts the MTG finance community warned people very early on that everything other than the cream of the crop would be massacred (you were guaranteed one in every BRO booster pack) and sure enough that's exactly what happened. What I will say is that new product doesn't seem to be entering the market nearly as quickly now that we're approaching DMR and most of the top playables have likely already found something very close to their floor. No crystal ball or promises but prices are already bouncing back to some extent. This includes [[Mox Amber]], [[Wurmcoil Engine]], [[Ashnod's Altar]], [[Helm of the Host]] and [[Aetherflux Reservoir]]. Not surprised to see that Mythics dominate the list but also not surprised to see Altar easily shrug off the extra supply from being a Rare.
W40K Surge Foils are popping off left and right and rather than list them all I'm just going to link Stocks and you can check out the foil movers. Tons of obvious manipulation going on but if it works it works. The only card that I found interesting was Prairie Stream because it's the only one that wasn't targeted/bought out and appears to be natural, organic drain. I expect to see a lot more of this for highly desirable EDH playables like Sol Ring, Farseek, Talisman of Progress, Endless Atlas and Worn Powerstone but also plenty more buyouts and manipulation. I've said it before and I'll say it again but I'm extremely high on sealed W40K CE decks as long term holds (even at current prices) as I don't see this trend of Surge Foil attacks/buyouts stopping anytime soon.
SLD Karn, The Great Creator has done nothing but climb since it was printed and while I don't know how anyone actions this now it does reinforce that when a SLD contains a 4-of, must have, multi-format staple the play is to max out and never look back. If you can find these cheap they look like good buys but realistically you probably won't. Again, this is more about the lesson than the spec.
Last week I mentioned how Fury and some other free cards were moving and this week I'll do one of two things. First, I'll throw out that Flawless Maneuver is also starting to move and has sold through 30% of its supply since last month. Secondly, and I cannot stress this enough, but [[Fury]] is one of the absolute hottest cards on the market and has gone though roughly 50% of its supply since last month with 30% of that occurring in the last week. You can say/think whatever you want about the current price not leaving enough meat on the bone but I (personally) vehemently disagree and think that it's an easy buy especially if you need some to play with.
submitted by Prid3 to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2023.01.03 12:06 funny1swe Printrun of each Rare 93-99 Mtg

Printrun of each Rare 93-99 Mtg submitted by funny1swe to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2023.01.01 02:55 thepoxbox MTG Print Runs in one Picture

MTG Print Runs in one Picture submitted by thepoxbox to mtgfinance [link] [comments]

2022.12.23 17:55 AutoModerator Happy Cakeday, r/mtgfinance! Today you're 10

Let's look back at some memorable moments and interesting insights from last year.
Your top 10 posts:
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2022.12.17 20:32 Reallyreed1 Also on r/mtgfinance. Staff of Domination Serialized #069/500. ‼️‼️‼️‼️ A couple misprints to note. There’s a roller line through the right side of the front (first photo) and a white spot on the back top left corner (third photo). How much do you guys think this is worth? 👀

Also on mtgfinance. Staff of Domination Serialized #069/500. ‼️‼️‼️‼️ A couple misprints to note. There’s a roller line through the right side of the front (first photo) and a white spot on the back top left corner (third photo). How much do you guys think this is worth? 👀 submitted by Reallyreed1 to mtgpulls [link] [comments]

2022.12.15 00:25 MetaZooFinance Come one, come all; Rudy’s and Timmy’s alike!

This is a group intended to parallel and rival that of mtgfinance, except for MetaZoo financal discussions instead. Please jump in and let’s talk about MetaZoo!
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2022.12.12 19:50 Darjeeling-sama From r/mtgfinance: "Russian Streets of New Capenna cards are equivalent to Nazi memorabilia and collecting them is war profiteering"

From mtgfinance: submitted by Darjeeling-sama to freemagic [link] [comments]

2022.12.09 20:56 Filthy__Casual2000 Stolen from another sub. Cat girls = money.

Stolen from another sub. Cat girls = money. submitted by Filthy__Casual2000 to freemagic [link] [comments]